Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.670991 21.280985 24.099360 27.365835 31.044310 35.055461 39.757637
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.632160 18.113314 22.165045 27.216993 33.334602 40.489735 49.479271
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.814415 16.718671 21.483703 27.704269 35.585822 45.212412 57.832949
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.287459 15.431204 20.705867 27.876387 37.329405 49.320112 65.631490
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.968504 14.198246 19.784077 27.649981 38.382190 52.445947 72.193168
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.058375 13.389505 19.302228 27.896361 39.988162 56.299783 79.856424
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.503049 12.998298 19.321909 28.779131 42.457147 61.392790 89.432289
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.685894 12.138174 18.585584 28.496505 43.214980 64.102167 95.778791
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.666626 10.873483 17.142407 27.043025 42.132582 64.071141 98.125273
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.315800 10.597555 17.140369 27.720770 44.215148 68.705985 107.496034
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.014217 10.367530 17.180244 28.446520 46.389057 73.562910 117.424986
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.550005 9.829437 16.688100 28.286332 47.153568 76.294216 124.219743
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.041893 9.183709 15.987811 27.762156 47.339036 78.191509 129.915167
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.685672 8.766652 15.630430 27.771086 48.379185 81.481230 137.988712
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.443274 8.525009 15.543132 28.213598 50.140022 85.988801 148.220318
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.180273 8.222093 15.324169 28.406732 51.478345 89.857906 157.581721
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.874054 7.811583 14.882144 28.170335 52.048987 92.458399 164.927679
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.668210 7.571490 14.724746 28.423055 53.474439 96.551647 174.977185
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.568166 7.526345 14.918180 29.320757 56.089232 102.800339 189.024367
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.317919 7.163086 14.490196 29.033366 56.532731 105.274915 196.577045
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.942272 6.513925 13.469754 27.554096 54.683474 103.582350 196.626806
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.853607 6.448853 13.576164 28.243867 56.924766 109.326676 210.310289
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.774907 6.397856 13.705288 28.982440 59.293095 115.404216 224.868735